Prevention of the Intensification of Factory Farming (PIFF) Country Scoring Model (Sub Saharan Africa)

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1	Summary
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3	High Level Category	High Level Category Weight	Explanation	Category Weight Explanation	Criterion	Multiplier	Source	Explanation	Limitations	Criterion Weight (within category)	Criterion Weight Explanation	Notes
4	Scale	0.325	This is a measure of the total size of the industry within a given country. The larger the scale is in a country, the greater impact can be had on reducing suffering by intervening to limit the extent and intensity in the country.	This is most highly weighted, as it provides a strong estimate of the number of animals affected by this industry in a country, which indicates the number of animals which could be impacted by intervention.	Projected number of animals farmed (2050)		FAO	Number of land animals projected to be farmed in 2050 under business-as-usual conditions (all categories). Accurate estimates for fish are not available to be included.	This does not include aquatic animals. Assumes a "business-as-usual" scenario.	1	Sole criteron
5	Projected Intensification	0.3	This is a measure of how much the industry is expected to intensify by 2050. The larger this is, the more the suffering per animal will increase, meaning a greater amount of suffering would be alleviated by intervening to limit the extent and intensity of the industry in this country.	This is a strong proxy for how large the suffering per individual is expected to increase, so this is highly weighted, contributing similar weight to scale.	Projected growth in number of animals farmed		FAO	Indication of how much the country will grow its animal agriculture output. The higher this is, the greater the scaling required, the larger the scale of impact if this can be avoided. The larger the rate of growth is, the more likely intensive methods must be adopted to sustain this.		0.35	This criterion receives a moderate weight for this category as it is a somewhat but not a completely direct measure of the increased suffering burden through intensification.
6					Increase in urban population (%) 2021-2050		OWID, OWID	Proxy for the projected increase in intensification, as intensification is linked to urbanisation. When urbanisation increases, fewer people work in agriculture on subsistence and smallholder farms and production must intensify to achieve the required outputs.		0.15	This criterion receives a low weight for this category as it is the least direct.
7					Ratio of the production amount per animal per year comparing 2050 to 2012 (FAO)		FAO	The more we expect a country to industrialise its farming operations, the more we can positively impact future animal lives if we are able to influence the trajectory of its intensification		0.5	This criteion receives 50% of the weight for this category as it provides a direct projection of the expected increase in intensification. However, given these are projections, to increase robusness we chose to diversify this category, limiiting weight to 50%.
8	Current Intensification	0.125	This is a measure of how intensive the industry currently is. The measure is inverted because the more intensive the industry in that country currently is, the less possible it would be to prevent intensification through intervention, as it would already have happened.	This has a moderately low weight compared to scale and projected intensification. Those weights are higher, as these measure the suffering burden, and this must be high for taking action in a country to be prioritised.	Normalised production amount per animal per year, averaged across five categories: cattle, poultry, pigs, dairy, eggs	-1	FAO	The higher the production amount per animal, the more industrialised we can expect the country's animal agriculture to be already. And the more industrialised it is already, the harder it will be to prevent this development.		0.85	Normalised production values provides a much more direct indication of the intensity of production per animal, and higher production rates are very likely to indicate increases suffering, thereby demanding the overwhelming majority of the weight.
9	Current Intensification	0.125			Agricultural value added per worker 2019	-1	OWID	The higher the agricultural value added per worker, the more intensive production currently is. And the more intensive it is already, the harder it will be to prevent this development.		0.15	Agricultural value added per worker provides a less direct criteron which is used to diversify this category. Given that it is a less direct indicator of the industrialisation of animal production, it receives a small weight for this category.
10	Tractability	0.2	This is a measure of how easy it would be to prevent or curtail intensification in a given country.	This has a moderate weight, as the easier this is, the more appropriate it would be to intervene in this country. However, scale and projected intensification weights are higher, as these measure the suffering burden, and this must be high for taking action in a country to be prioritised.	Corruption Index		Corruption Perception Index	The less corrupt a country is, the easier it should be to drive sustainable improvements for animals in that country, as policy makers and other key decision makers may be more open to new ideas and less biased.		0.175	This has a moderate weighting as it provides a general indication of the political stability and ability to fairly influence policymakers through lobbying, public opinion and outreach	Each criterion for tractability receives a relatively similar weight, given there are many different proxies for tractability, none of which are particularly direct. Further, different proxies may be more relevant for determining tractability for different intervention methods. For example, public opinion and democratic index may be more important for public facing media campaigns. For this model to remain general and not locked in to a particular intervention strategy.
11					Democracy Index		OWID	The more democractic a country is, the easier it should be to drive sustainable improvements for animals in that country through this mechanism.		0.18	This has a moderate weighting as it provides a general indication of the political stability and ability to fairly influence policymakers through lobbying, public opinion and outreach.
12					Political Stability		World Bank	The more politically stable a country is, the easier it should be to drive sustainable improvements for animals in that country.		0.15	This has a moderate weighting as it provides a general indication of the political stability and ability to fairly influence policymakers through lobbying, public opinion and outreach.
13					% thinking govt should take action on climate change despite expense		Afrobarometer	The higher the proportion of the public that feels the government should take action on climate change despite its expense, the greater public pressure there may be to limit the intensification of animal agriculture to mitigate the envirronmental harms.	This assumes that governments care about public opinion, which may not be the case across all African nations.	0.1	This has a lower weighting within this category as it is less clear that public opinion is weighed heavily by policy-makers and governments in African nations, based on expert opinion.
14					Share of labour force employed in agriculture (2019)		OWID	The larger the proprotion of the labour force employed in agriculture, the more opposition and resistance there is likely to be limiting the extent of intensification of agriculture, due to more livelihood directly depending upon it.	This dataset does not discern between those employed in arable, pastoral or mixed agriculture.	0.2	This has a higher weighting within this category as I have high confidence that the higher this is, the larger the extent of the opposition to efforts to hinder the intensification of agriculture, making it a more direct criterion than others.
15					EPI score (Environmental Protection Index)		EPI	The higher a country scores on environmental protection, the more likley they are to consider implemeniting policies that support some social or public good over economic development. Further, environmental arguments for limiting industrialisation of animal agriculture may be better received.	Motivation for action on environmental policy may not translate to animal welfare relating policies. In some contexts, intensive animal agriculture can produce less emissions than non-intensive animal agriculture.	0.2	This has a higher weighting as it reflects government's willingness to act on similar issues.
16	Movement Support	0.05	This is used as inverted neglectedness or movement support. This is a measure of how many resources are currently being dedicated to solving the problem. In this case, the fewer people working on this issue, the less tractable this will be.	This has a low weight, as almost all countries are neglected compared to the Global North, as well as compared to the size of the problem. It is inverted, as the presence of some existing animal organisations or individuals working to reduce suffering caused by this industry may increase the tractability.	Ratio of human population to number of farmed animal advocacy organizations	-1	Animal Charity Evaluators	Given that the farmed animal advocacy space is much smaller in Africa, the more existing groups there are within a country, the more lilkely it is that progress will be made on this issue within that country.	ACE's list is incomplete. One could also use AAA's database of African animal advocacy organisations.	1	Sole criterion
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